EIA Annual Energy Outlook (AEO)#
Source URL |
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Source Description |
The EIA Annual Energy Outlook provides projections of future fuel prices, energy supply and consumption, and carbon dioxide emissions by sector and region. |
Source Format |
JSON |
Download Size |
449 MB |
Temporal Coverage |
2023-2025 |
PUDL Code |
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Unprocessed Source Data Archive |
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Issues |
PUDL Database Tables#
We’ve segmented the processed data into the following normalized data tables. Clicking on the links will show you a description of the table as well as the names and descriptions of each of its fields.
Background#
The Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) is a report published by EIA detailing projections and trends of energy consumption and supply in the US stretching out to 2050. The EIA generates the data by running a suite of input data through their National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) (github), actively updating the model to accommodate new scenarios and legislation. The resulting data represent a wide range of potential outcomes for the US energy sector based on a set of key assumptions.
Projections are published annually with even years featuring full documentation and extensive supplemental scenarios and odd years offering simpler, more concise information. Typical scenarios include:
Reference case
Low and high economic growth
Low and high oil and gas supply
Low and high oil prices
Low and high renewable costs
Alternative scenarios may explore potential policy impacts or other relevant changes. However, it’s important to note that the energy system and accompanying policy landscape are changing rapidly, and neither NEMS or AEO can capture all the complexities. For instance, when designing model stipulations for a new year of AEO, only laws implemented before that year are taken into consideration.
For more information about scenarios, policy assumptions, and more, visit EIA’s AEO webpage.
Download additional documentation#
Data available through PUDL#
PUDL has incorporated data from a small subset of AEO table based on input from the energy modeling community. If there’s a table you don’t see but would like to, let us know or consider contributing! You can open an issue or email us at hello@catalyst.coop.
PUDL hosts AEO data from 2023 onward. Each AEO release presents a fresh set of forward looking projections so we haven’t prioritized integrating the older data. For a look back at historic projections, poke around the AEO Retrospective Review published after each even year.
Who submits this data?#
AEO data is created by EIA staff using outputs from NEMS. It does not originate from utility or plant operator respondents like EIA or FERC form data.
What does the original data look like?#
EIA publishes AEO data in several ways:
Excel files by case and scenario (reference case and other scenarios)
As bulk JSON files (this is the data integrated into PUDL)
Notable Irregularities#
There are lots of subtotals embedded within the AEO data! Watch out when aggregating the data.
We have checks in place to make sure the totals are accurate sums of their stated
components pudl.transform.eiaaeo.subtotals_match_reported_totals_ratio()
PUDL Data Transformations#
To see the transformations applied to the data in each table, you can read the
docstrings for pudl.transform.eiaaeo created for each table’s
respective transform function.